U.S. Gas Shale - An Answer For Our Energy Needs

Conclusions From NCI Study

• Unconventional gas, especially shale, has ramped up sharply over the last several years,
both in terms of annual production and in terms of economically recoverable reserves.
The extent of this ramp-up has not been fully captured by many reserve estimators, in
particular the EIA.
• Based upon producer outreach responses, just the “big seven” shale plays are expected
to reach a range of 27 to 39 Bcf/day over the next 10 to 15 years, timing that coincides
with opportunities for phased expansion of natural gas use.
• Higher prices have significantly expanded the economically recoverable volumes, and
are continuing to do so.
• Some producers and analysts have very high estimates of the ultimate recoverable gas,
well in excess of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) or Potential Gas Committee (PGC).
• The rapid escalation of unconventional production observed historically is continuing,
and the unconventional resource base appears adequate to support that escalation to
allow significantly increased volumes of unconventional production to continue for
decades.
• A conservative estimate of the total domestic proved reserves and ultimately
recoverable domestic resource base, adjusting from the most recent PGC study, reaches
1,680 Tcf, in excess of 88 years of U.S. production at current levels.
• Estimates by producers active in developing the shale resource are much larger,
reaching levels that would imply a further increase to more than 2,247 Tcf, or 118 years
at current production levels— This important resource is not constrained.