By DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN and SCOTT RASMUSSEN
It is simply wrong for commentators to continue to focus on President Barack Obama's high levels of popularity, and to conclude that these are indicative of high levels of public confidence in the work of his administration. Indeed, a detailed look at recent survey data shows that the opposite is most likely true. The American people are coming to express increasingly significant doubts about his initiatives, and most likely support a different agenda and different policies from those that the Obama administration has advanced.
Polling data show that Mr. Obama's approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001. Rasmussen Reports data shows that Mr. Obama's net presidential approval rating -- which is calculated by subtracting the number who strongly disapprove from the number who strongly approve -- is just six, his lowest rating to date.
Overall, Rasmussen Reports shows a 56%-43% approval, with a third strongly disapproving of the president's performance. This is a substantial degree of polarization so early in the administration. Mr. Obama has lost virtually all of his Republican support and a good part of his Independent support, and the trend is decidedly negative.
A detailed examination of presidential popularity after 50 days on the job similarly demonstrates a substantial drop in presidential approval relative to other elected presidents in the 20th and 21st centuries. The reason for this decline most likely has to do with doubts about the administration's policies and their impact on peoples' lives.
There is also a clear sense in the polling that taxes will increase for all Americans because of the stimulus, notwithstanding what the president has said about taxes going down for 95% of Americans. Close to three-quarters expect that government spending will grow under this administration.
Recent Gallup data echo these concerns. That polling shows that there are deep-seated, underlying economic concerns. Eighty-three percent say they are worried that the steps Mr. Obama is taking to fix the economy may not work and the economy will get worse. Eighty-two percent say they are worried about the amount of money being added to the deficit. Seventy-eight percent are worried about inflation growing, and 69% say they are worried about the increasing role of the government in the U.S. economy.
When Gallup asked whether we should be spending more or less in the economic stimulus, by close to 3-to-1 margin voters said it is better to have spent less than to have spent more. When asked whether we are adding too much to the deficit or spending too little to improve the economy, by close to a 3-to-2 margin voters said that we are adding too much to the deficit.
Support for the stimulus package is dropping from narrow majority support to below that. There is no sense that the stimulus package itself will work quickly, and according to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, close to 60% said it would make only a marginal difference in the next two to four years. Rasmussen data shows that people now actually oppose Mr. Obama's budget, 46% to 41%. Three-quarters take this position because it will lead to too much spending. And by 2-to-1, voters reject House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's call for a second stimulus package.
While over two-thirds support the plan to help homeowners refinance their mortgage, a 48%-36% plurality said that it will unfairly benefit those who have been irresponsible, echoing Rick Santelli's call to arms on CNBC.
And although a narrow majority remains confident in Mr. Obama's goals and overall direction, 45% say they do not have confidence, a number that has been growing since the inauguration less than two months ago. With three-quarters saying that they expect the economy to get worse, it is hard to see these numbers improving substantially.
There is no real appetite for increasing taxes to pay for an expanded health-insurance program. Less than half would support such an idea, which is 17% less than the percentage that supported government health insurance when Bill Clinton first considered it in March of 1993.
While voters blame Republicans for the lack of bipartisanship in Washington, the fact is that they do not believe Mr. Obama has made any progress in improving the impulse towards cooperation between the two parties. Further, nearly half of voters say that politics in Washington will be more partisan over the next year.
Fifty-six percent of Americans oppose giving bankers any additional government money or any guarantees backed by the government. Two-thirds say Wall Street will benefit more than the average taxpayer from the new bank bailout plan. This represents a jump in opposition to the first plan passed last October. At that time, 45% opposed the bailout and 30% supported it. Now a solid majority opposes the bank bailout, and 20% think it was a good idea. A majority believes that Mr. Obama will not be able to cut the deficit in half by the end of his term.
Only less than a quarter of Americans believe that the federal government truly reflects the will of the people. Almost half disagree with the idea that no one can earn a living or live "an American life" without protection and empowerment by the government, while only one-third agree.
Despite the economic stimulus that Congress just passed and the budget and financial and mortgage bailouts that Congress is now debating, just 19% of voters believe that Congress has passed any significant legislation to improve their lives. While Congress's approval has increased, it still stands at only 18%. Over two-thirds of voters believe members of Congress are more interested in helping their own careers than in helping the American people. When it comes to the nation's economic issues, two-thirds of voters have more confidence in their own judgment than they do in the average member of Congress.
Finally, what probably accounts for a good measure of the confidence and support the Obama administration has enjoyed is the fact that they are not Republicans. Virtually all Americans, more than eight in 10, blame Republicans for the current economic woes, and the only two leaders with lower approval ratings than Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi are Republican leaders Mitch McConnell and John Boehner.
All of this is not just a subject for pollsters and analysts to debate. It shows fundamentally that public confidence in government remains low and is slipping. We face the possibility of substantial gridlock along with an absolute absence of public confidence that could come to mirror the lack of confidence in the American economy that the Dow and the S&P are currently showing.
Mr. Schoen, formerly a pollster for President Bill Clinton, is the author of "Declaring Independence: The Beginning of the End of the Two Party System" (Random House, 2008). Mr. Rasmussen is president of Rasmussen Reports, an independent national polling company.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Aetna Signs 3-Year Agreement With Intercoastal Medical Group
SARASOTA, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 12, 2009-- Aetna (NYSE: AET) announced today that it has signed a three-year agreement with Intercoastal Medical Group Inc. Under the new contract, members of Aetna’s Medicare Advantage HMO and PPO plans, will be able to receive covered benefits, at in-network rates, from Intercoastal Medical Group physicians. The contract takes effect April 1.
Intercoastal Medical Group already provides in-network care to members of Aetna’s commercial health plans in the Tampa-area.
“Aetna is very pleased to expand its relationship with Intercoastal Medical Group,” said Jim McCunney, Aetna’s vice president of network management for the Tampa area. “Members of our commercial plans have been receiving excellent care from Intercoastal physicians for some time, and we’re glad that our present and future Medicare Advantage members will be able to benefit from the same services.”
Aetna is the only Medicare Advantage insurer presently contracted with Intercoastal.
“We are very pleased to be able to offer this association with Aetna to our patients and to be the care providers for Intercoastal Aetna patients,” said Geoff Simon, Intercoastal Medical Group administrator.
About Intercoastal Medical Group
Founded in 1993, Intercoastal Medical Group (IMG) is a professional association of more than 60 board-certified physicians encompassing 18 specialties. IMG's seven locations in Sarasota and Manatee counties include physician offices, laboratories, imaging facilities and a day surgery center.
Aetna provides health benefits to approximately 437,000 members in the Tampa area. Those members have access to a network that includes 60 contracted hospitals and more than 7,000 primary care physicians and specialists.
Intercoastal Medical Group already provides in-network care to members of Aetna’s commercial health plans in the Tampa-area.
“Aetna is very pleased to expand its relationship with Intercoastal Medical Group,” said Jim McCunney, Aetna’s vice president of network management for the Tampa area. “Members of our commercial plans have been receiving excellent care from Intercoastal physicians for some time, and we’re glad that our present and future Medicare Advantage members will be able to benefit from the same services.”
Aetna is the only Medicare Advantage insurer presently contracted with Intercoastal.
“We are very pleased to be able to offer this association with Aetna to our patients and to be the care providers for Intercoastal Aetna patients,” said Geoff Simon, Intercoastal Medical Group administrator.
About Intercoastal Medical Group
Founded in 1993, Intercoastal Medical Group (IMG) is a professional association of more than 60 board-certified physicians encompassing 18 specialties. IMG's seven locations in Sarasota and Manatee counties include physician offices, laboratories, imaging facilities and a day surgery center.
Aetna provides health benefits to approximately 437,000 members in the Tampa area. Those members have access to a network that includes 60 contracted hospitals and more than 7,000 primary care physicians and specialists.
Target Declares 2nd Quarter 2009 Dividend
MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 12, 2009-- The board of directors of Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) has declared a quarterly dividend of 16 cents per common share. The dividend is payable June 10 to shareholders of record May 20, 2009. The second quarter dividend will be the company’s 167th consecutive dividend paid since October 1967 when the company became publicly held.
Initial Jobless Claims Up Slightly - Week Ending March 7, 2009
In the week ending March 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 654,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 645,000. The 4-week moving average was 650,000, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 643,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.0 percent for the week ending Feb. 28, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.8 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb. 28 was 5,317,000, an increase of 193,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,124,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,139,750, an increase of 124,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 5,015,500.
The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 4.533 million.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.0 percent for the week ending Feb. 28, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.8 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb. 28 was 5,317,000, an increase of 193,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,124,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,139,750, an increase of 124,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 5,015,500.
The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 4.533 million.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
A Look Back
From Barrons
Stocks fell 12 of the past 15 sessions. It might have been 13 if stocks hadn't mustered a sharp swerve higher late Friday afternoon, after the government reported 651,000 workers laid off in February. Total job cuts this recession reached 4.4 million as the unemployment rate climbed to 8.1%, worsening worries about rising loan defaults and more bank losses.
Such sharp selling, however, increases the odds of at least a temporary bounce in the oversold market, even if a lasting rally and economic rejuvenation remain elusive. Bear-market bounces are transient but are nothing to scoff at. The last one, from Nov. 20 to Jan. 6, produced a 24% gain. So even as stocks finished Friday near their lowest level since 1996, traders dutifully covered their short positions.
A LITTLE BOUNCE IS EASY, BUT AN enduring new bull market is tougher to spawn. Retailers, thanks to discounters like Wal-Mart (ticker: WMT), last month saw their first sales uptick since September. But twice-bitten, thrice-shy investors want to see a likely end to the blight in housing, banks and consumer spending before they commit again. Just last week, Wells Fargo (WFC) cut its dividends 85% to hoard capital, while General Motors (GM) reported a 53% drop in February sales.
Financial stocks fell hardest last week and could continue to flail as shareholders worry about encroaching government ownership. But that's not all, as fears percolate of a destabilizing international banking crisis. Unlike their U.S. counterparts, European banks grappling with flubbed loans to Eastern Europe are slow to book losses and raise capital. So far, the U.S. accounts for three-quarters of bank losses recognized globally, and doubts linger about the balance sheets of European banks.
"While the U.S. has the resources to bail out its financial institutions, the same may not be said for many other governments," says Jonathan Golub, a former Bear Stearns strategist who now runs his own firm, Golub Market Insights. Belgium's short-term bank liabilities are roughly 285% of its gross domestic product, while the figure is 260% for Switzerland, 156% for Great Britain and 60% for France and Germany -- versus 15% for the U.S.
Coaxing Americans to spend more also presents both a challenge and a conundrum. Americans had 20 cents of debt for every dollar of income in 1945, but that figure has since swelled to $1.20. During this span, "risky assets" like real estate, stock holdings and pension reserves had increased from 1.4 times the annual income to 4.7 times in 2007. To Jeff Lick, who manages Galt Investments, the U.S. has morphed from an "income earning culture" to one driven by asset appreciation. And in recent years, that growth "was a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop fueled by very high level consumption."
Now that household wealth has been cut swiftly and severely, a negative feedback loop has begun that could take years to play out. "The reality is so much of U.S. household consumption and GDP growth over the last five years was stuff we simply didn't need or simply won't miss," Lick says. He expects Americans to save more, and thinks the outlook for consumption growth is bleak.
That helps explain why government stimuli haven't quite managed to inspire the stock market. "Policy responses to this crisis are worrisome, especially U.S. actions aimed at supporting excess consumption and Chinese stimulus focused on sustaining excess investment," argues Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.
Too Little, Too Late: A 146-point bounce late Friday cut the Dow Jones Industrial Average's loss last week to 6.2%. But it remains at its lowest level since 1997.
He thinks the U.S. needs to save instead and plow those savings toward infrastructure investment, alternative energy technology and human capital, while China needs to increase domestic consumption. Fighting this inevitable rebalancing will merely return us "to the very same strain of unbalanced economic growth that got us into this mess in the first place."
Stocks fell 12 of the past 15 sessions. It might have been 13 if stocks hadn't mustered a sharp swerve higher late Friday afternoon, after the government reported 651,000 workers laid off in February. Total job cuts this recession reached 4.4 million as the unemployment rate climbed to 8.1%, worsening worries about rising loan defaults and more bank losses.
Such sharp selling, however, increases the odds of at least a temporary bounce in the oversold market, even if a lasting rally and economic rejuvenation remain elusive. Bear-market bounces are transient but are nothing to scoff at. The last one, from Nov. 20 to Jan. 6, produced a 24% gain. So even as stocks finished Friday near their lowest level since 1996, traders dutifully covered their short positions.
A LITTLE BOUNCE IS EASY, BUT AN enduring new bull market is tougher to spawn. Retailers, thanks to discounters like Wal-Mart (ticker: WMT), last month saw their first sales uptick since September. But twice-bitten, thrice-shy investors want to see a likely end to the blight in housing, banks and consumer spending before they commit again. Just last week, Wells Fargo (WFC) cut its dividends 85% to hoard capital, while General Motors (GM) reported a 53% drop in February sales.
Financial stocks fell hardest last week and could continue to flail as shareholders worry about encroaching government ownership. But that's not all, as fears percolate of a destabilizing international banking crisis. Unlike their U.S. counterparts, European banks grappling with flubbed loans to Eastern Europe are slow to book losses and raise capital. So far, the U.S. accounts for three-quarters of bank losses recognized globally, and doubts linger about the balance sheets of European banks.
"While the U.S. has the resources to bail out its financial institutions, the same may not be said for many other governments," says Jonathan Golub, a former Bear Stearns strategist who now runs his own firm, Golub Market Insights. Belgium's short-term bank liabilities are roughly 285% of its gross domestic product, while the figure is 260% for Switzerland, 156% for Great Britain and 60% for France and Germany -- versus 15% for the U.S.
Coaxing Americans to spend more also presents both a challenge and a conundrum. Americans had 20 cents of debt for every dollar of income in 1945, but that figure has since swelled to $1.20. During this span, "risky assets" like real estate, stock holdings and pension reserves had increased from 1.4 times the annual income to 4.7 times in 2007. To Jeff Lick, who manages Galt Investments, the U.S. has morphed from an "income earning culture" to one driven by asset appreciation. And in recent years, that growth "was a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop fueled by very high level consumption."
Now that household wealth has been cut swiftly and severely, a negative feedback loop has begun that could take years to play out. "The reality is so much of U.S. household consumption and GDP growth over the last five years was stuff we simply didn't need or simply won't miss," Lick says. He expects Americans to save more, and thinks the outlook for consumption growth is bleak.
That helps explain why government stimuli haven't quite managed to inspire the stock market. "Policy responses to this crisis are worrisome, especially U.S. actions aimed at supporting excess consumption and Chinese stimulus focused on sustaining excess investment," argues Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.
Too Little, Too Late: A 146-point bounce late Friday cut the Dow Jones Industrial Average's loss last week to 6.2%. But it remains at its lowest level since 1997.
He thinks the U.S. needs to save instead and plow those savings toward infrastructure investment, alternative energy technology and human capital, while China needs to increase domestic consumption. Fighting this inevitable rebalancing will merely return us "to the very same strain of unbalanced economic growth that got us into this mess in the first place."
3 Million Jobs Unfilled As Of January 2009
On the last business day of January, there were 3.0 million job openings in the United States, and the job openings rate was 2.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The job openings rate fell in January, while the hires rate (3.3 percent) and the total separations rate (3.6 percent) were essentially unchanged. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector by industry and geographic region. This release also includes annual estimates for hires and separations. The annual rate for hires, total separations, and quits decreased in 2008 while the annual layoffs and discharges rate increased.
Aetna Consumer-Directed Health Care Works!
Aetna Announces Results of a Six-Year Study of Consumer-Directed Health Plans
-- Aetna HealthFund(R) Shows Sustained Savings Over Time For Employers, With Members Getting the Care They Need --
HARTFORD, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 10, 2009-- Aetna (NYSE: AET) today announced the results of a six-year study of health care claims and utilization for members in its Aetna HealthFund® consumer-directed plans. The study of 2.6 million Aetna members (410,000 in an Aetna HealthFund plan) demonstrates that Aetna HealthFund shows sustained savings for employers over a five-year period, with members getting the care they need. The results also show that Aetna HealthFund members are seeking increased levels of chronic and preventive care, using generic drugs more often and accessing online tools and information at higher rates than PPO members, while experiencing lower annualized medical cost increases. Importantly, this year’s results also show that Aetna HealthFund members had lower emergency room use than PPO members, suggesting that members are becoming better informed about where to access health care.
The Aetna HealthFund study included 200 plan sponsors who offered an Aetna HealthFund Health Reimbursement Arrangement (HRA) and/or an Aetna HealthFund Health Savings Account (HSA). The study looked at 2.6 million members across the spectrum of Aetna medical products, including 410,000 Aetna HealthFund members. Key findings include:
For full replacement HRA and HSA plans, employers saved $21 million per 10,000 members over the five year period.
For employers who offer Aetna HealthFund plans as an option, they experienced savings of $7 million per 10,000 members over the five year period.
For employers who offer Aetna HealthFund plans as an option and implemented the strategies that Aetna identified as best-in-class, they achieved savings of $23 million per 10,000 members over the five year period.
“In these difficult economic times, employers are looking for tried and true strategies that will allow them to continue to offer their employees a comprehensive and affordable benefits package,” said Aetna President Mark Bertolini. “As the first national health plan to offer consumer-directed products, Aetna has the longest experience with these plans and the best insight into what strategies are successful.”
Last year, Aetna identified several strategies that have proven successful for employers, including fostering a culture where employees and senior executives are engaged health care consumers, implementing a focused and ongoing employee education campaign, offering wellness programs and incentives for healthy behavior, providing 100 percent coverage for preventive care and carefully constructing a plan with the right mix of member responsibility. While these strategies continue to be successful, Aetna found another approach that can help employers achieve success - encouraging their employees to enroll in the consumer-directed plan option. This can be done by offering the consumer-directed plan option as the lowest cost, lowering the required contribution or increasing the fund amount. Furthermore, this year’s results show that employers who implement these strategies can achieve significant cost savings and that more employers are adopting these strategies and seeing positive results.
“Consumerism in health care is about much more than a product – it is the idea that with the right mix of education, member responsibility and benefits design, you can engage members and help them make more informed health care decisions for themselves and their families. In fact, this year’s results show that consumers in the Aetna HealthFund plans sought online health information twice as often as the control population and were twice as likely to take a health risk assessment,” Bertolini added.
The results also show that Aetna HealthFund members:
Seek preventive care more often than the control matched PPO population. Furthermore, Aetna HealthFund members had 10 percent lower primary care physician utilization for non-routine services and 15 percent lower utilization of specialist care.
Access the same or higher levels of screenings for diabetes and breast and cervical cancer, compared to members in traditional PPO products.
Utilize the prescription drugs necessary to treat chronic conditions such as diabetes, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease and high cholesterol at similar or higher rates than PPO members.
Use consumer tools and information – including searching for health information, using the cost of care tools available through Aetna Navigator – at twice the rate compared to PPO members.
“Aetna’s analysis of members in its Aetna HealthFund plans exemplifies the importance of providing credible data that will help employers evaluate the performance of these plans. It is always a challenge to adopt new ideas, particularly in the face of a recession,” said Alexander Domaszewicz, Mercer’s Health Consumerism Lead. “The study reinforces the evidence we’ve seen emerge throughout the decade - that strategies such as encouraging employee financial responsibility, offering robust coverage for preventive care and providing a full suite of online tools and information, is helping employers achieve cost savings, promote a healthier workforce and still meet plan sponsor attraction, retention and employee satisfaction goals. We need to recognize, however, that many employees need high touch outreach and face-to-face support when they face complex illnesses. The ideal strategy when implementing consumer-directed health plans combines all of these approaches in the right way.”
-- Aetna HealthFund(R) Shows Sustained Savings Over Time For Employers, With Members Getting the Care They Need --
HARTFORD, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 10, 2009-- Aetna (NYSE: AET) today announced the results of a six-year study of health care claims and utilization for members in its Aetna HealthFund® consumer-directed plans. The study of 2.6 million Aetna members (410,000 in an Aetna HealthFund plan) demonstrates that Aetna HealthFund shows sustained savings for employers over a five-year period, with members getting the care they need. The results also show that Aetna HealthFund members are seeking increased levels of chronic and preventive care, using generic drugs more often and accessing online tools and information at higher rates than PPO members, while experiencing lower annualized medical cost increases. Importantly, this year’s results also show that Aetna HealthFund members had lower emergency room use than PPO members, suggesting that members are becoming better informed about where to access health care.
The Aetna HealthFund study included 200 plan sponsors who offered an Aetna HealthFund Health Reimbursement Arrangement (HRA) and/or an Aetna HealthFund Health Savings Account (HSA). The study looked at 2.6 million members across the spectrum of Aetna medical products, including 410,000 Aetna HealthFund members. Key findings include:
For full replacement HRA and HSA plans, employers saved $21 million per 10,000 members over the five year period.
For employers who offer Aetna HealthFund plans as an option, they experienced savings of $7 million per 10,000 members over the five year period.
For employers who offer Aetna HealthFund plans as an option and implemented the strategies that Aetna identified as best-in-class, they achieved savings of $23 million per 10,000 members over the five year period.
“In these difficult economic times, employers are looking for tried and true strategies that will allow them to continue to offer their employees a comprehensive and affordable benefits package,” said Aetna President Mark Bertolini. “As the first national health plan to offer consumer-directed products, Aetna has the longest experience with these plans and the best insight into what strategies are successful.”
Last year, Aetna identified several strategies that have proven successful for employers, including fostering a culture where employees and senior executives are engaged health care consumers, implementing a focused and ongoing employee education campaign, offering wellness programs and incentives for healthy behavior, providing 100 percent coverage for preventive care and carefully constructing a plan with the right mix of member responsibility. While these strategies continue to be successful, Aetna found another approach that can help employers achieve success - encouraging their employees to enroll in the consumer-directed plan option. This can be done by offering the consumer-directed plan option as the lowest cost, lowering the required contribution or increasing the fund amount. Furthermore, this year’s results show that employers who implement these strategies can achieve significant cost savings and that more employers are adopting these strategies and seeing positive results.
“Consumerism in health care is about much more than a product – it is the idea that with the right mix of education, member responsibility and benefits design, you can engage members and help them make more informed health care decisions for themselves and their families. In fact, this year’s results show that consumers in the Aetna HealthFund plans sought online health information twice as often as the control population and were twice as likely to take a health risk assessment,” Bertolini added.
The results also show that Aetna HealthFund members:
Seek preventive care more often than the control matched PPO population. Furthermore, Aetna HealthFund members had 10 percent lower primary care physician utilization for non-routine services and 15 percent lower utilization of specialist care.
Access the same or higher levels of screenings for diabetes and breast and cervical cancer, compared to members in traditional PPO products.
Utilize the prescription drugs necessary to treat chronic conditions such as diabetes, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease and high cholesterol at similar or higher rates than PPO members.
Use consumer tools and information – including searching for health information, using the cost of care tools available through Aetna Navigator – at twice the rate compared to PPO members.
“Aetna’s analysis of members in its Aetna HealthFund plans exemplifies the importance of providing credible data that will help employers evaluate the performance of these plans. It is always a challenge to adopt new ideas, particularly in the face of a recession,” said Alexander Domaszewicz, Mercer’s Health Consumerism Lead. “The study reinforces the evidence we’ve seen emerge throughout the decade - that strategies such as encouraging employee financial responsibility, offering robust coverage for preventive care and providing a full suite of online tools and information, is helping employers achieve cost savings, promote a healthier workforce and still meet plan sponsor attraction, retention and employee satisfaction goals. We need to recognize, however, that many employees need high touch outreach and face-to-face support when they face complex illnesses. The ideal strategy when implementing consumer-directed health plans combines all of these approaches in the right way.”
Friday, March 6, 2009
Unemployment Rate Hits 8.1%
U.S. employers axed 651,000 jobs in February, pushing the unemployment rate to its highest in 25 years, as companies buckled under the strain of a recession that is showing no signs of ending, according to a government report.
While that figure was near economists' expectations for a 648,000 drop in non-farm payrolls, January and December job losses were revised sharply higher.
The Labor Department on Friday said the unemployment rate surged to 8.1 percent in February, the highest level since December 1983. That was above market forecasts for a rise to 7.9 from January's 7.6 percent.
January's job cuts were revised to show a steep decline of 655,000, while December's payrolls losses were adjusted to 681,000, the deepest since October 1949. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the economy has purged 4.4 million jobs, with more than half occurring in the last 4 months.
Job losses in February were broad based, with only government, education and health services adding jobs.
"Since the recession began, the rise in unemployment has been concentrated among people who lost jobs, as opposed to job leavers or people joining the labor force," said Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Keith Hall
The manufacturing sector shed 168,000 jobs in February, after eliminating 257,000 positions the prior month.
Construction industries bled 104,000 jobs in February after losing 118,000 in January. The service-providing industry slashed 375,000 positions after shedding 276,000 in January.
While that figure was near economists' expectations for a 648,000 drop in non-farm payrolls, January and December job losses were revised sharply higher.
The Labor Department on Friday said the unemployment rate surged to 8.1 percent in February, the highest level since December 1983. That was above market forecasts for a rise to 7.9 from January's 7.6 percent.
January's job cuts were revised to show a steep decline of 655,000, while December's payrolls losses were adjusted to 681,000, the deepest since October 1949. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the economy has purged 4.4 million jobs, with more than half occurring in the last 4 months.
Job losses in February were broad based, with only government, education and health services adding jobs.
"Since the recession began, the rise in unemployment has been concentrated among people who lost jobs, as opposed to job leavers or people joining the labor force," said Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Keith Hall
The manufacturing sector shed 168,000 jobs in February, after eliminating 257,000 positions the prior month.
Construction industries bled 104,000 jobs in February after losing 118,000 in January. The service-providing industry slashed 375,000 positions after shedding 276,000 in January.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Mortgage Payments In Arrears
NEW YORK (Reuters) – One in every eight U.S. households, a record share, ended 2008 behind on their mortgage payments or in the foreclosure process as job losses intensified a housing crisis spawned by lax lending practices, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Thursday.
With unemployment at a 16-1/2-year high and rising, more borrowers will be late paying or fall into foreclosure this year, said the group's chief economist Jay Brinkmann.
"While California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Michigan continue to dominate the delinquency numbers, some of the sharpest increases we saw last quarter in loans 90 days or more delinquent were in Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Texas and Mississippi, signs of the spreading impact of the recession," he said.
U.S. President Barack Obama's $275 billion housing stimulus program will standardize modifications for distressed loans and pave the way for more refinancing.
That should smooth differences caused by various state and company moratoria that temporarily curbed the surge in foreclosures in the fourth quarter, Brinkmann said.
"But keep in mind that there are three drivers to the housing problem, and this program of course addresses mostly the first one," which relate to loan structure, underwriting quality and fraud, Brinkmann said.
The two other major problems still loom large -- an oversupply caused by overbuilding and foreclosures, and unemployment.
A record 11.18 percent of loans on one-to-four unit residences were at least one payment past due or in the foreclosure process in 2008, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The delinquency rate jumped 2.06 percentage points from a year ago to a record 7.88 percent. The share of loans in the foreclosure process leaped 1.26 percentage point in the year to a record 3.30 percent.
MBA started tracking the data in 1972.
"There are some new states popping up in terms of the big increases," Brinkmann said.
"We see New York being influenced by the layoffs that we've been seeing on Wall Street and some of the rest of the industry associated with that," he noted.
"Some of the Southern states that had construction-related unemployment, whether it was forest product or plywood manufacturing. Some of the tourism industry is now being hit, certainly in Mississippi with the casinos, and in Florida."
In Michigan, where overbuilding was not a problem, supply nonetheless is weighty as people lose jobs and leave the state and strand homes, Brinkmann said.
Subprime adjustable-rate loans and prime ARM loans still drive the late payments, but that is shifting.
Nationwide, 48 percent of subprime ARMs were at least one payment past due and in Florida over 60 percent of subprime ARMs were at least one payment late.
"We will continue to see, however, a shift away from delinquencies tied to the structure and underwriting quality of loans to mortgage delinquencies caused by job and income losses," Brinkmann said.
Of particular concern, he said, is a sharp pickup in joblessness among people with college educations.
By the end of last year, "we saw some sharp pickups in delinquency rates with prime loans and I think that's now going to continue as long as we see unemployment continue to climb among the people most likely to own homes," Brinkmann said.
How high unemployment in that segment of the population gets and how long it stays there are will "determine ultimately how long the prime fixed loan delinquencies continue to climb," he said. "Some of these people do have adequate reserves to last maybe six months or a year without a job, but the longer this thing goes on the quicker they then run through those reserves and their loans go delinquent."
(Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
With unemployment at a 16-1/2-year high and rising, more borrowers will be late paying or fall into foreclosure this year, said the group's chief economist Jay Brinkmann.
"While California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Michigan continue to dominate the delinquency numbers, some of the sharpest increases we saw last quarter in loans 90 days or more delinquent were in Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Texas and Mississippi, signs of the spreading impact of the recession," he said.
U.S. President Barack Obama's $275 billion housing stimulus program will standardize modifications for distressed loans and pave the way for more refinancing.
That should smooth differences caused by various state and company moratoria that temporarily curbed the surge in foreclosures in the fourth quarter, Brinkmann said.
"But keep in mind that there are three drivers to the housing problem, and this program of course addresses mostly the first one," which relate to loan structure, underwriting quality and fraud, Brinkmann said.
The two other major problems still loom large -- an oversupply caused by overbuilding and foreclosures, and unemployment.
A record 11.18 percent of loans on one-to-four unit residences were at least one payment past due or in the foreclosure process in 2008, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The delinquency rate jumped 2.06 percentage points from a year ago to a record 7.88 percent. The share of loans in the foreclosure process leaped 1.26 percentage point in the year to a record 3.30 percent.
MBA started tracking the data in 1972.
"There are some new states popping up in terms of the big increases," Brinkmann said.
"We see New York being influenced by the layoffs that we've been seeing on Wall Street and some of the rest of the industry associated with that," he noted.
"Some of the Southern states that had construction-related unemployment, whether it was forest product or plywood manufacturing. Some of the tourism industry is now being hit, certainly in Mississippi with the casinos, and in Florida."
In Michigan, where overbuilding was not a problem, supply nonetheless is weighty as people lose jobs and leave the state and strand homes, Brinkmann said.
Subprime adjustable-rate loans and prime ARM loans still drive the late payments, but that is shifting.
Nationwide, 48 percent of subprime ARMs were at least one payment past due and in Florida over 60 percent of subprime ARMs were at least one payment late.
"We will continue to see, however, a shift away from delinquencies tied to the structure and underwriting quality of loans to mortgage delinquencies caused by job and income losses," Brinkmann said.
Of particular concern, he said, is a sharp pickup in joblessness among people with college educations.
By the end of last year, "we saw some sharp pickups in delinquency rates with prime loans and I think that's now going to continue as long as we see unemployment continue to climb among the people most likely to own homes," Brinkmann said.
How high unemployment in that segment of the population gets and how long it stays there are will "determine ultimately how long the prime fixed loan delinquencies continue to climb," he said. "Some of these people do have adequate reserves to last maybe six months or a year without a job, but the longer this thing goes on the quicker they then run through those reserves and their loans go delinquent."
(Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Target February 2009 Sales Down 4.1%
MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 5, 2009-- Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) today reported that its net retail sales for the four weeks ended February 28, 2009 were $4,373 million, unchanged from $4,373 million for the four weeks ended March 1, 2008. On this same basis, February comparable-store sales declined 4.1 percent.
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