Initial Unemployment Claims

Department Of Labor

In the week ending June 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 384,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 359,000. The 4-week moving average was 371,500, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average of 369,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending May 31, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.3 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 31 was 3,139,000, an increase of 58,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,081,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,099,250, an increase of 16,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,082,750.
The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 2.882 million.

The increase in claims for the week ended May 31 occurred during a week which includes a holiday. The data from such weeks are often volatile due to the seasonal factors and can be misleading. This modest one-week pop in claims to 384,000 should therefore be viewed with some skepticism. It may well be reversed next week.
The four-week moving average was 372,000, which reflects a very steady trend near 375,000 since early March.

Unemployment claims are running at elevated levels, but well below levels experienced in the past two recessions. The four-week moving average has been near 375,000 since early March. This steady trend contrasts with the sharp increase in claims that occurred ahead of the 2001 recession, when claims spiked to over 400,000 per week by mid-April after the start of recession in January. The current trend in claims is consistent with moderate declines in payrolls, but not at the rate of 150,000 per month or more seen in true recessions.